Fact Sheet - Canada’s Energy Future 2017: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 - Natural Gas Production

Natural Gas Prices

  • The Henry Hub natural gas price assumption in all three cases, in constant 2016 dollar terms, increases from US$2.45/MMBtu in 2016 to US$4.30/MMBtu in 2040. Natural gas is less GHG-intensive than other fossil fuels. Under the assumptions of the HCP and Technology Cases, it is unclear whether natural gas demand would increase or decrease in response to the assumptions in those cases. Given this uncertainty, the Henry Hub price assumptions in all three cases are the same.

Natural Gas Production

  • Natural gas production in the Reference Case declines early in the projection period, reaching a low of 414 million cubic metres per day (106m3/d) or 14.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023. After 2023, production begins to increase as gradually higher prices encourage enough drilling to offset production declines from older wells. By 2040, production increases to 477 106m3/d (16.8 Bcf/d), its highest level since 2007. In the HCP Case, natural gas production is 10% lower than the Reference Case by 2040.

Natural Gas Production, Reference and HCP Cases

Natural Gas Production, Reference and HCP Cases
  • The majority of production growth over the projection period comes from the Montney formation, a large resource located in northeast B.C. that extends into northwest Alberta. In the Reference Case production from the Montney reaches 223 106m3/d (7.9 Bcf/d) in 2040, a 74% increase from 2016. In the HCP Case, production from the Montney grows at a slightly slower pace and is 8% lower than the Reference Case by 2040.

Tight and Shale Natural Gas Production by Play, Reference Case

Tight and Shale Natural Gas Production by Play, Reference Case
  • Natural gas production is 3% lower in the Technology Case compared to the HCP Case in 2040. This is primarily because lower crude oil production results in lower production of solution gas, the natural gas produced along with oil from oil wells.

 

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